创业

最简便的估算烧钱速度的公式

创业公司基本都要烧钱,那怎么计算烧钱速度,这里提供的可能是对创业公司最简便的估算烧钱速度的公式。在列举公式以前,先要了解和定义这3个概念:ARR年度经常性收入,需要排除偶发的单次的和纯服务性收入;ACV每个客户的平均签约价值和CAC获得顾客平均成本,顾客成本回收期是根据2016年度的 PacCrest survey,大概为14个月,那么CAC就等于ACV除以12乘以14。

计算方法是先预计你的ARR,让ARR除以ACV得出需要的客户数量,再乘以CAC,就可以知道你需要烧多少钱了。这个公式肯定不是完美的,用于估算烧钱速度是足够了。

原文链接:http://tomtunguz.com/

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The Quickest Way to Estimate How Much Your Startup Needs to Raise

tomtunguz.com July 20th, 2017

Tell me three numbers and I can estimate the amount of capital your startup will need to raise. Which figures are those? The startups’ revenue target, the average revenue per customer and the average cost of customer acquisition.

For example, I’d like to estimate the cost for my SaaS startup to reach $100M in annual recurring revenue (ARR). My typical customer pays $25k average contract value (ACV) and my cost of customer acquisition (CAC) is $29k. I estimate a 14 month payback, which is the average according to the 2016 PacCrest survey. To calculate CAC, we take the 14 months divide by 12 months and multiply by the ACV. To reach $100M requires 4,000 customers. Each of the 4,000 customers cost on average $29k. This math implies spending $116M to acquire those customers.

This estimate is remarkably accurate for Marketo. Our little equation estimates that Marketo would have required $62M to reach $53M in revenue at IPO. Marketo burned $64M to reach that revenue milestone, an error of just 3%.

How would accurate is this equation across a larger number of companies?

 

The chart above plots the actual burn of ten next generation software companies compared to the estimated burn. To calculate the burn, I’ve subtracted the amount of cash on the company balance sheet at IPO from the total amount raised.

The model isn’t perfect. Predictions vary from a 3% difference for Marketo to a 62% difference for Okta. But the R Squared, a simple measure of the accuracy of our model, is 0.78. This means the model explains 78% of the variance, which is pretty good for such a simple equation.

This equation fails to consider many, many things. To name a few: How long the company bootstraps. Whether the business collects cash up front. Whether the business executes growth consistently or endures some period of correction. No consideration for churn. It also assumes a company is venture backed and that it wants to grow at a rate similar to other publics. Last, I used a small data set which excludes outliers like Atlassian and Box.

In short, it’s no substitute for a real financial model. But it’s a pretty good back of the envelope estimate.

fundraising

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